Covid-19
Understanding the facts
the death rate
There are the latest statistics directly from the UK government
See common queries regarding these statistics answered below
The UK government has measured COVID-19 deaths based on the definition of ‘deaths within 28 days of a positive test’.
While this appears simple at a glance, many questions can be raised regarding the reliability of the methodologies used to obtain and analyse the raw data as well as the reliability of comparing this data with other countries within and outside of the UK. So how do the different regions of the UK assess COVID-19 data and what specifically is classified as a COVID-19 death?
An individual who has tested positive for the virus can die of other unrelated causes shortly after diagnosis. There is also no agreed cut off point for when an individual is thought to be fully recovered; this can cause variation in whether COVID-19 is considered a causative factor in a death. These issues are made more difficult by the presence of different strains.
Why is calculating the total deaths so complex?
In Wales, deaths of patients in Welsh hospitals or care homes where COVID-19 has been confirmed with a laboratory test and noted as a causative factor of the death are reported to Public Health Wales. As such, unconfirmed cases, deaths in other settings and Welsh residents who died outside of Wales are excluded from Welsh death totals.
In contrast, Scotland reports deaths in all settings where the individual tested positive and the death is registered with the National Records of Scotland. England and Northern Ireland too report confirmed cases reported to Public Health England and the Public Health Agency respectively.
Are non-hospitalised deaths included in statistics?
Death or case rate is calculated per 100,000 people. It is calculated by dividing the death count by the population and multiplying this by 100,000. As no adjustments are made for other factors these rates are rough estimates. It should also be noted that 2018 mid-year population estimates are used in these calculations as these are the most recent population statistics currently available. Assuming the population has increased, this may lead to inflated death rates.
How is the death rate calculated and how reliable is it?
Excess deaths are calculated by subtracting the expected deaths from the total deaths. Expected deaths are predictions calculated using data from the previous 5 years and taken for the same time of year to increase reliability. These calculations can be divided into subgroups, for example based on age or ethnicity.
What are excess deaths?
The 7 day rolling average is calculated by adding the death total of the day in question with the death totals of the past 3 days and post 3 days then dividing this total by 7. This method smooths out sudden fluctuations in death rates across consecutive days.
What is the 7 day rolling average?
From April to August 2020 all deaths of individuals in England who had received a positive test had been reported by the COVID-19 Data Dashboard to avoid understating the total deaths. This meant that an individual who had recovered from the disease months prior then died in a car crash would have been included in the COVID-19 death toll. August saw England adopt Scotland’s method of only including deaths within 28-days of a positive test where COVID-19 was thought to be a contributing factor. This caused the death total in England to reduce from 46,706 to 41,329.
Does the death rate only include deaths from Covid-19 itself?
In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, no deaths were reported on public holidays but rather were added to the report the following day inflating that day’s death total. Similarly, where technical issues in calculating death totals occur, the reported death total for that day may be added to the day after.
In Wales, from the 12 April 2021 Public Health Wales moved to a 6 day reporting period skipping Saturdays. Mondays reported deaths over the 48 hour period from 9:00 Friday to 9:00 Sunday.
Why do some days experience inflations of total deaths?
The location of a death is assigned to the individuals main place of residence rather than their place of death. As records are updated, these locations can change causing apparent discrepancies in death totals in local authorities. In England, where the regional location of the death is unknown, the death is excluded in regional counts. In contrast, if a Welsh citizen dies outside of Wales they are not included in Welsh death totals.
How is the location of a death assessed?
Both of these statistics are available on the UK COVID-19 Data Dashboard. Where the date of death is referenced, previous data is being continuously updated.
The 24 hour period which the death is associated to is as follows: 17:00-17:00 in England and Wales and 9:30-9:30 in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Are death dates allocated by the date of death or the date the death is reported?
COVID-19 deaths require a positive test in an individual where COVID-19 was thought to be a causative factor. Where COVID-19 is mentioned on a death certificate, unconfirmed cases or examples where COVID-19 is not thought to be a causative factor can be included.